Achievement

Why have divorce rates fallen? U.S. divorce rates rose from the 1950s to 1970s, peaked around 1980, and have fallen ever since. The mean age at marriage also substantially increased after 1970. Trainee Dana Rotz explores the extent to which the rise in age at marriage can explain the rapid decrease in divorce rates for cohorts marrying from 1980-2004. Three different empirical approaches all demonstrate that the increase in women's age at marriage can explain at least 60% of the decline in the hazard of divorce since 1980. Other factors, such as improvements in women's labor market opportunities and increased access to birth control, largely impacted divorce rates over this period by changing age at marriage. She also shows that the recent changes in age at marriage and divorce are associated with more egalitarian marriages and decreased marital conflict. But the new patterns of family formation also imply a polarization in the lives of children born to more and less educated women.